INSIGHTS · INDICATORS

Moving Averages — Slope and Extension Answer Different Questions

2026-07-01 · Updated 2026-10-05 · Indicators

A moving average smooths prices. The screener uses simple moving averages for its 50/150/200-day comparisons; some model-book exits use exponential averages. Equal period labels do not imply equal values or signal dates.

An average can rise on a down day

Hypothetical closes of 90, 100 and 110 have a three-session SMA of 100. A new close of 108 is a down day, yet the new average is (100+110+108)/3=106 because 90 leaves the window. A rising average alone does not demonstrate current buying pressure or a future gain.

EMA depends on its initialization

EMA today = α × close today + (1−α) × EMA yesterday; α = 2 / (period+1)

For 20 periods, α is approximately 0.0952. A previous EMA of 100 and a close of 110 produce about 100.95. Different initial histories can yield different provider values. Twenty daily observations and twenty weekly observations are different horizons.

Extension measures distance

A close of 112 versus SMA20 of 100 gives 12% extension. That says nothing by itself about the slope of SMA200. On 2026-10-02, 29 of the 90 Korean eight-condition passers were more than 10% above SMA20. Qualification did not imply proximity to the short average.

Do not assume support

An average is calculated from past prices. Prices are not obliged to bounce or fill an order at that line. Testing “support” requires fixed approach distance, confirmation, fill timing and failure rules. An intrawweek crossing and a weekly closing crossing are also different. Check the observation frequency and first exit date in each model-book R table.

Data and corrections

See the methodology for calculation rules and the 2026-10-02 signal-disagreement study for the frozen sample. Report a date and URL through contact when you find an error.

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