INSIGHTS · PATTERNS

Measuring VCP — Contractions and Failure Definitions

2026-07-01 · Updated 2026-10-05 · Patterns

VCP describes narrowing price swings across successive pullbacks. Passing eight conditions or having low ADR is not a VCP classification. This screener does not automatically identify contraction boundaries or calculate a pattern's success probability.

Use one amplitude definition

Hypothetical high/low pairs of 100/80, 98/88.2 and 97/92.15 have depths of 20%, 10% and 5% using (high−low)/high. Using the low as denominator makes the first depth 25%. Do not mix definitions or compare weekly high/low swings with daily close-only swings.

Boundary selection changes the conclusion

If the final low is 85, its depth is about 12.37%, wider than the second contraction. Selecting only attractive lows after viewing a chart biases the result. Specify whether the pivot is the final swing high or the entire base high. Narrowing prices do not directly measure available supply or institutional buying.

Include failures in the investigation

  1. Fix the horizon, price inputs and boundary-detection rules.
  2. Specify the pivot crossing, fill timing and failure window.
  3. Record patterns that never break out and those that subsequently fall.
  4. Include gaps and costs, then compare an unchanged rule on another period.

The model book helps inspect historical structures. Without the full pattern count and failures, it cannot rank VCP as the most reliable buying signal. Price distance, liquidity and market conditions remain separate questions.

Data and corrections

See the methodology for calculation rules and the 2026-10-02 signal-disagreement study for the frozen sample. Report a date and URL through contact when you find an error.

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